Interest rates on hold. Glapiński to explain the decision today

The decision was announced on Wednesday 7 October. The reference rate has been at this level since March, when the Council cut it by 0.25 percentage points.

The decision came as no surprise. None of the 20 economists and research teams surveyed by the dailies Rzeczpospolita and Parkiet expected anything else.

Inflation outside the target band

The Council held rates despite a clear rise in inflation. In September prices were 4.0% higher than a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August. It is the first time since June 2025 that inflation has moved outside the band around the NBP target of 2.5% ± 1 percentage point. Fuel accounts for roughly half of the increase.

Hikes on the horizon?

The market expects rates to rise. Futures suggest they could be about one percentage point higher in a year. Economists are more cautious and talk of one to three hikes.

Council members are divided too. Wiesław Janczyk and Ludwik Kotecki had earlier not ruled out hikes, while Ireneusz Dąbrowski and Marcin Zarzecki opposed a “precautionary” hike.

What the governor will say

NBP governor Adam Glapiński will explain the decision at a press conference on Thursday at 15:00. After the September meeting he said there was no sign of any change in interest rates coming soon. The next opportunity for a move comes in November, when the NBP presents its new inflation projection.