Polish inflation at 4.0% in September; full data on Wednesday, core inflation on Thursday

The flash estimate showed inflation accelerating to 4.0% year on year in September from 3.4% in August. Month on month, prices rose 0.7%. Fuel is driving the increase: up 36.1% on the year and 9.2% on the month. Energy is 4.9% dearer, while food is 0.5% cheaper than a year ago. The central bank's target is 2.5% with a tolerance of plus or minus one percentage point, so 4.0% is above the band.

Prices in shops

A report by UCE Research and WSB Merito shows shop prices up 1.9% year on year in September, compared with 1.7% in August. Food in shops rose 1.1%. The survey covered 95,400 prices in 47,000 shops. The authors say the slowdown in price growth has been interrupted, but this should not be seen as the start of a sharp wave of price rises.

The week ahead

Statistics Poland will publish the full September data on Wednesday at 9:30. The same day at 14:30 Polish time the US releases its inflation figures, and on Thursday the National Bank of Poland publishes core inflation, which was 3.3% in August. Pekao expects inflation to keep accelerating in the coming months, to about 4.5% by the end of the year.