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Business2 min read

Oil falls after Trump's "energy ceasefire" post; Brent at USD 102.99

On Monday morning a barrel of Brent crude cost USD 102.99, 1.65% less than on Friday. The market is reacting to Donald Trump's Sunday post announcing an immediate energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.

On Sunday Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine was taking effect immediately. At 6:55 on Monday a barrel of Brent cost USD 102.99, 1.65% below Friday's close. US WTI crude fell 1.92% to USD 90.09. Not long ago Brent was close to USD 110.

No confirmation yet

The Kremlin has not confirmed the ceasefire. Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine would agree if Russia did. Shortly after Trump's post, however, he reported a Russian strike on a combined heat and power plant in Kharkiv. On Friday the US agreed a deal with Russia on Russian diesel supplies, allowed by a US Treasury licence valid until April 2027. "Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority," Trump wrote.

What it means at the pump

Poland's price caps for 10–12 October are PLN 6.97 a litre for 95 petrol, PLN 7.85 for 98 and PLN 8.06 for diesel. The energy ministry will announce Tuesday's caps on Monday; last week it did so around noon. VAT on fuel is cut to 8% until the end of 2026.

Source: Money.pl, Bankier.pl/PAP, AP, Otomoto (11–12 Oct 2026)

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WIG up 35% this year: is the Warsaw bull market coming to an end?

The Warsaw Stock Exchange has had record weeks, with the WIG and WIG20 indices both hitting records on 6 October. But some valuation measures are at their highest since 2008, and analysts warn of a peak.

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Key facts

  • 159,338.95 points: the WIG record of 6 October.
  • 4,222.36 points: the WIG20's record close, its first since 2007.
  • 1.8: the WIG's price-to-book ratio, the highest since 2008.
  • 48 months: the length of the bull market, +252% from the 2022 low.

What's next

  • This week investors get inflation data from Poland and the US.
  • This article is for information only and is not investment advice.

Source: Bankier.pl, XYZ.pl (9–12 Oct 2026)

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Polish inflation at 4.0% in September; full data on Wednesday, core inflation on Thursday

According to Statistics Poland's flash estimate, prices in September were 4.0% higher than a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August. This week brings the full data, core inflation and US inflation.

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Key facts

  • +36.1% year on year: fuel prices (flash estimate).
  • −0.5% year on year: food prices.
  • +1.9%: shop prices in September according to UCE Research.
  • 4.5%: Pekao's forecast for inflation at the end of the year.

Calendar

  • Wednesday 14 Oct, 9:30: full September CPI from Statistics Poland. Wednesday, 14:30: US inflation.
  • Thursday 15 Oct: core inflation from the central bank (3.3% in August).

Source: Statistics Poland (GUS), Bankier.pl/PAP, Stockwatch, Super Biznes, UCE Research, Money.pl (12 Oct 2026)

· 2 min read