A rate hike in November? MPC member Ludwik Kotecki does not rule it out

Ludwik Kotecki said that if the November NBP projection does not show inflation returning to the 2.5% target in the fourth quarter of 2027 or early 2028, a motion to raise rates by 0.25 points will be needed. "The balance of risks is clearly negative," he said.

What the NBP governor says

At his press conference on 8 October, Adam Glapiński neither ruled out a hike nor signalled one. "It doesn't look like it for now, but I'm not deciding that in advance," he said. Futures price in about one 0.25-point hike by the end of the year. ING economists see two such hikes in the first quarter of 2027 if the energy shock persists.

What it means for borrowers

The reference rate has been 3.75% since March. September inflation was 4.0% in the flash estimate, with fuel 36.1% more expensive than a year earlier. On a PLN 750,000 mortgage over 25 years at 5.85%, the monthly payment is about PLN 4,764. After a 0.25-point hike it would rise to about PLN 4,878, or roughly PLN 115 more.

The next MPC meeting is on 3–4 November.