Glapiński: I do not expect a rate hike in November

The governor spoke at a press conference on Thursday 8 October, a day after the Monetary Policy Council left the reference rate at 3.75%. Rates last changed in March 2026, when the MPC cut them by 0.25 percentage points.

Inflation above target

According to the GUS flash estimate, September inflation of 4% was above the upper limit of the NBP target of 2.5% ± 1 percentage point. Energy prices accounted for 60% of CPI growth. Glapiński said inflation could return to target in October. Government support measures lower it by about 0.7 percentage points.

No hike in November

“I do not expect an interest rate hike in November,” the governor said, as quoted by Rzeczpospolita. He added: “From the data I know, a hike does not look likely, but I am not ruling it out either.” Bankier.pl quotes him as saying: “I repeat, however: at the moment there is no reason for concern, and there will not be in November either.” He also said that “the central bank will not yield to any political pressure”.

In the second quarter GDP was almost 4% higher than a year earlier, and wages in the enterprise sector are rising by about 6%.

Gold and next steps

At the end of September the NBP held 672.9 tonnes of gold, worth about PLN 348.6bn. Its target is 700 tonnes. ING expects two 25-basis-point hikes in the first quarter of 2027 if the energy shock persists. The next MPC meeting takes place on 3–4 November.