CBOS poll: only four parties would enter the Sejm; KO on 28.6%, PiS 18.2%

The CBOS public opinion research centre published its October party poll on Monday. If an election produced these results, only four groupings would enter the Sejm: the Civic Coalition (KO), PiS, Konfederacja and the Confederation of the Polish Crown. Of the parties in the current ruling coalition, only KO would clear the threshold. CBOS is one of the oldest public opinion research centres in Poland.

KO and PiS up, Konfederacja down

KO leads with 28.6%, 2.5 points higher than in the previous survey. PiS has 18.2%, a gain of 3.2 points, which puts KO 10.4 points ahead of the largest opposition party. Konfederacja is third with 12.8%, 2 points lower than a month earlier. The Confederation of the Polish Crown has 7.3%, down 0.5 points. A month earlier the gap between KO and PiS was 11.1 points, so despite KO's gain it has narrowed slightly.

Who is below the threshold

The threshold is 5% for parties and 8% for coalitions. Razem is closest at 4.9%, just one tenth of a point short. Rozwój Plus, Mateusz Morawiecki's party, has 3.8%. Nowa Lewica lost 2.9 points and stands at 3.0%, although a month earlier, on 5.9%, it was still above the line. PSL has 2.8% and Polska 2050 1.2%. All three of KO's coalition partners are therefore clearly below the threshold.

What it would mean for the Sejm

Votes cast for parties that fail to reach the threshold do not translate into seats. With support distributed like this, seats in the Sejm would be shared among just four groupings, three of which are currently in opposition. Together they have 66.9% of responses. Parties below the threshold account for 15.7%, and those voters' choices would not win their parties a single seat. The parties of the current coalition have 35.6% between them, but apart from KO their support would not translate into seats in the Sejm. PiS, Konfederacja and the Confederation of the Polish Crown have 38.3% together. Seats are allocated in constituencies using the D'Hondt method, which usually favours the largest parties, so support levels alone cannot precisely predict the balance of power in the Sejm.

How the poll was done

CBOS carried out the survey on 5–8 October on a sample of 1,000 people. Eighty percent of the interviews were conducted by telephone and 20% online. Fourteen percent of respondents were undecided, and 74% said they would vote. The undecided outnumber Konfederacja's supporters, so their final choices could still change the balance of power.

How to read the result

A single poll captures the mood at one moment, so it is better to look at the trend across several surveys than at one result. Polls by different firms can give different results, and the next parliamentary election is still about a year away. For parties close to the threshold in particular, a difference of a few tenths of a percentage point is within the margin of error. For Razem, this means its real support could be slightly above or slightly below 5%.